Brent crude prices have been declining since hitting $128 per barrel in 2022, with analysts at Bank of America (BofA) predicting further downside in 2025 and beyond. BofA estimates Brent will average $75 per barrel this year and $73 in 2026, citing geopolitical risks, trade uncertainties, and supply dynamics as key factors weighing on the market.
Sanctions on Russian oil have provided some price support, but recent U.S.-Russia discussions over ending the Ukraine war have raised speculation that restrictions could ease, potentially flooding the market with fresh supply and exerting downward pressure. Additionally, U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed global tariffs create uncertainty, with analysts debating their potential impact on oil demand.
OPEC+ is currently cutting production by 5.85 million barrels per day (bpd) to stabilize Brent prices at around $70. The group planned to ease output cuts in April, but reports suggest it may delay the move despite pressure from Trump to lower prices. However, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated there are no plans to postpone production hikes.
BofA expects Brent to range between $60 and $80 per barrel through 2030, balancing global oil markets. The bank also forecasts oil demand growth to slow, averaging 1.1 million bpd over the next two years—down from 2.3 million bpd in 2023—as electric vehicle adoption curbs fuel consumption.
Key upside risks include a slowdown in EV sales, geopolitical instability, and deepwater drilling delays. Conversely, a weak global economy, increased OPEC+ output, and higher U.S. shale productivity could push prices lower.
With multiple variables at play, Brent crude remains in a delicate balance, with both supply and demand factors shaping future price movements.